The recent poll carried out by tns/mrbi for TG4 on the Sligo/North Leitrim constituency was inaccurate by a factor of approximately 50% on the allocation of the third seat and this cast doubt on the method of interpretation of polls conducted on behalf of TG4.

This was stated by Independent TD and MEP Marian Harkin when she said that her analysis of the Sligo/Leitrim poll correctly identified very serious inaccuracies in analysis.

In particular the analysis which had indicated that Fianna Fail candidate Eamon Scanlon would win the third seat was not sustained by the poll figures and represented a serious misrepresentation of the outcome, she said.

An accurate interpretation of the Sligo/North Leitrim poll showed that Harkin received 41% of transfers from Comiskey (FG); 24% from Henry (FG); 30% from McGarry (Lab); 11% from McManus (Sinn Fein), all of which come into play in the TG4 poll. On the other hand Scanlon received zero % transfers from each of these candidates.

Marian Harkin said “The fundamental flaw in the analysis from tns/mrbi is that they attributed number twos from Perry and Devins to Scanlon when only a very tiny fraction of these votes would come into play. It makes no sense to ask people to indicate preferences and then not to count them as they would be counted in an election.

“The analysis is flawed and, on the assumption that the same analysis is used in other polls, it also calls into question their validity. I am asking tns/mrbi to clarify this matter and adjust their figures to give an accurate picture of the distribution of preferences in the Sligo/North Leitrim constituency poll”.